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Russia: 2035

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Russian President Vladimir Putin formally approved the Russian Federation’s long awaited fifteen year plan for the Arctic last week. The plan, titled “Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy to 2035” addresses Russia’s Arctic environmental policy, infrastructure development, and security position. Russia’s 2035 strategy details a more assertive approach to the High North, in keeping with recent increases in development and military activity.

Economic Development

The Northern Sea Route (NSR), also known as the Blue Silk Road, was emphasized as being critical to Russia’s liquified natural gas (LNG) extraction and transportation strategy. LNG and freight are critical for Arctic job creation, with Basic Principles 2035 laying out a target of 200,000 new jobs in the next 15 years.

Environmental Concerns

‘Basic Principles 2035’ takes a pragmatic approach to climate change. The document singles out the possibility of foreign powers contaminating Russia’s Arctic waters and makes general paeans to global warming. However, Russia departs from the usual platitudes to emphasize the potential economic gains from Arctic warming–longer periods ice-free allow for cheaper, faster trade and transit. These periods also enable energy extraction in previously inaccessible areas. Russia is rightly focused on oil and gas over renewables and poised to maintain its energy dominance with redoubled Arctic extraction.

Security Policy

Most of Russia’s highlighted security concerns are domestic troubles, such as a dearth of Arctic public-private partnerships, a lack of technological development, aging and nonexistent infrastructure, and demographic decline. However, Basic Principles 2035 also highlights the need for military modernization in the face of increased Arctic NATO activity. The cornerstone of Russia’s Arctic leap forward is the Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) system, which hastens information transmission and models battles in real time to determine strategies and project outcomes. Russia also rightfully warns against ‘discrediting its economic claims’ in its territory, the largest of any Arctic state.

“Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy to 2035” is a continuation of previous Russian policy, and contains essentially no surprises. The sheer expanse of Russia’s Arctic territory makes the Federation a de facto regional leader. Basic Principles 2035 outlines the economic development and national security measures necessary to improve quality of life and maintain strategic dominance in the High North.

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Recent Developments in the American Arctic

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The last two weeks in the American Arctic have been eventful. The Trump Administration moved to expand Arctic fossil fuel production, the navy conducted successful naval drills in the region, and a fire aboard the Icebreaker USCGC Healy ended present Coast Guard Arctic activity.

Drilling in the ANWR

Plans to open drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) have been stalled by twin lawsuits. The Gwich’in Steering Committee and National Audubon Society are accusing the Department of the Interior of violating federal environmental and administrative law. The plaintiffs believe insufficient care was given to environmental impact reviews, and that drilling may threaten native wildlife.

President Trump, Interior Department Secretary David Bernhardt, and Alaska Governor Michael Dunleavy believe the project would be an economic boon, creating jobs, introducing more capital to an underdeveloped region, and increasing energy self-sufficiency. Secretary Bernhardt expressed confidence about the Interior Department’s legal due diligence, saying he was “very comfortable with the lines that we drew in this case”.

American Military Activity in the Arctic Region

The United States military deployed the USS Seawolf fast-attack submarine to Norway this week, in a rare display of the submersible. Bombers were also flown to the United Kingdom. The display of American undersea power is particularly noteworthy, given its rarity and Russian remilitarization of the High North. Though the Navy’s recent Arctic activity was successful, the Coast Guard endured a crippling blow.

USCG Healy Damaged By Fire

A fire damaged propulsion motors in the Icebreaker USCGC Healy, resulting in the Coast Guard’s cancellation of all current Arctic activity. With Healy docked in Seattle for repairs, the United States has only one functional icebreaker remaining. This places America at a significant disadvantage when compared to Arctic competitors China and Russia, which operate two and 40 icebreakers respectively. The United States’ remaining icebreaker, the Polar Star, caught fire last year as well. 

Though funding to increase America’s icebreaker fleet size is incoming, construction will go on until the mid 2020s. In an increasingly contentious Arctic region and world, self-sufficiency and power projection are essential to safeguard America’s interests. The modernization of the United States’ Arctic capabilities must occur sooner rather than later. 

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Japan and Arctic Policy Patterns

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Like many ‘Arctic-adjacent’ countries, Japan is interested in the region for its energy and its maritime trade potential. Their activity in the High North is emblematic of near-Arctic countries generally, with some caveats.

Natural Gas and the National Interest

Since the 2011 Fukushima Crisis, Japan has been searching for alternatives to nuclear power. Alterations to energy policy saw nuclear power decline from making up a third of the country’s total energy production to just two percent. Liquified natural gas (LNG) imports have filled the void, and Japan’s new appetite for natural gas has drawn their attention to Russia and Scandinavia. 

Key Japanese corporations are cooperating with Russia in an LNG development project. Japanese Prime Minister Abe praised the deal, saying it “facilitates Russia’s efforts to develop the Arctic and ensures stable energy supply to our country”. As with other near-Arctic countries like Britain and South Korea, deference is displayed to Arctic partners so as to deflect sovereignty concerns. The deal includes substantial cooperation between China and Japan, a further calcification of the People’s Republic’s regional power. 

Norway’s first LNG tanker arrived in Japan in 2012, inaugurating their present cooperation in development of the Northeast Passage. Since Japan wants to diversify its energy imports as much as possible, importing Arctic gas from several countries is a must.

Diplomatic Reshuffling

In 2013, Japan unveiled its Basic Ocean Policy Plan and was made a permanent observer on the Arctic Council. As with most Arctic and near-Arctic states, the country’s High North policy was woefully out of date. In order to correct this, Japan appointed an Arctic Affairs Ambassador the same year, and in 2015 released an official Arctic policy statement. Japan is focused on improving relations with Russia and increasing cooperation along the Northeastern Passage.

Climate Change Credibility

Japan has operated an Arctic climate research center since 1990. While valuable in itself, climate concerns are often used to legitimize near-Arctic powers’ presence in the High North. 

Japan officially resumed Arctic whaling in 2019, a traditional but highly contested practice. However, Norway and Iceland are also whaling advocates, and the three have proved highly resilient to international intervention against them.

Future Projects

Japan’s Arctic involvement is mild and forthright, preeminently focused on LNG access. The island nation will continue economic integration with Russia and Scandinavia, with a shakier future ahead for its Chinese and Korean circumpolar partnerships. As with other near-Arctic states, Japanese investment and development may be of value so long as Arctic regional sovereignty is respected.